It’s late summer in Florida; a bit of a slow-motion dog-days sort of time. The weather is hot. How hot? Darn hot. Too hot. Same for the humidity. It’s back to school time, and although I said in my “back to school” column last month that I always liked going back to school, it wasn’t my favorite time of year after I had kids of my own.
The school year meant practices and recitals and games in every darn activity that my wife signed up the little urchins for.
I went to every one of those activities. Okay, I’m sure that is an exaggeration, but I went non-stop for a decade and a half. The highest stress of my life was needing to be at activities for three kids, earn a living at work, and see to all the household needs while my own parents were aging, and I was being introduced to the first of a loooong series of my very own intestinal surgeries.
I have one high school-era classmate who, upon seeing me, always likes to point out that I’m bald now, and another who complains that my beard is too white. “I earned it” is my go-to response. I do, however, have a plan to dye my beard blue at some point in the future. Having my kids and grandkids call me “Bluebeard” is too valuable a scheme to pass up. I am just waiting until I reach that point in life where you are comfortable enough with my eccentricities that you will be amused by the fashion statement and not fear that I have lost my mind in such a way that will be detrimental to our financial goals. You’ll know when I figure that out. There will be signs.
I gave a green beard a test run this past summer.
I found some green zinc oxide sunscreen that I used. I wore it one day on a boating outing and the other guys thought it some odd dermatological treatment rather than a simple fashion statement. Nope, the answer is that my grandkids think their old grandpa (“Opus,” they call me) is so cool when I do these things. As a result, the opinion of my fellow Presbyterians on Sunday morning doesn’t carry much weight anymore. That is, unless they want to talk to me about it. This continues to be an ongoing problem. No, I do not want to discuss trivial things on Sunday morning. If you do, please do not be insulted, but yes, please do go away. It’s not easy being me, but it’s easier than it was 20 years ago. Except for the arthritis. I’m not happy about that little gift of the passing years.
So, as summer turns to fall and November 5th is about 15 minutes away, what, you might ask, do I think of the election as it relates to our investments and the economy?
Well, you might not ask that, but I have gotten that question fairly often as of late. It’s to be expected. The same questions come around every four years and there is a huge amount of financial press dedicated to trying to make you worry about current events. The answer, of course, is, “I don’t have a clue what outrages the elected officials might dream up to perpetrate upon us, but over the last two hundred years, the republic has survived … even thrived.” The other answer is to not listen to the financial press.
If you’re worried over the elections from an investment standpoint, just stop it—the worrying, not the election.
I will remind you that after Mr. Trump was elected in 2016, the stock market went on a sharp upward run for the next year or so. When Mr. Biden, was elected in 2020 we saw the same thing.
I will agree with you that tax policy, trade policy and spending policies have a great deal to do with how our economy functions, and the performance of the stock market ultimately depends upon the economy. Unfortunately, at the present time, both parties have lousy tax, trade, and spending policies. I predict the markets will … fluctuate. We will survive, but we the economic ride won’t be any smoother than the social policy rides.
I have paused here to rewrite that last paragraph because it sounds so pessimistic, and so dire.
Sorry, I ended up leaving it as originally written. But please, do not despair. I am not pessimistic. As I have written to you before, I am optimistic about America and the opportunities that lie before us. To encourage you and to frame your view of tomorrow, I will let then President Ronald Reagan finish our conversation.
September 2024
